Final Super 12 2005 Wrap

Crusaders 35 Waratahs 25
The final was played and very predictively won by the Crusaders. They were just too good for the Waratahs. If it was not for the fact that the Crusaders took their foot off the pedal and let in three very soft tries towards the end, this final score would have been very high.

Lets start for the front. The Waratahs pack tried very hard and David Lyons and Phil Waugh did not stand an inch back for the Crusaders pack. The powerful force, led by a ball stealing Richie McCaw, was just too much and the black and reds got so much quality ball, they did not know what to do with it.

Justin Marshall was once again king behind the pack and showed that he has, despite the fact that he is not very popular, still a master behind a good pack. It was however Rico Gear who once again caught the eye. His counter attacking ability reminds one of the Howlett/Mulliaina/Rocokoco combination and his skills and little jabs ahead a bit of Carlos Spencer. Did he not learn his rugby in Auckland? He has definitely made a mark against his name for selection in the All Black jersey. Leon McDonald was another star at the back and he must also have given the selectors a lot of food for thought.

After completion of the Super 12, I hate to admit it, but the SA and Aussie camps should have a fairly clear idea who will be their starting lineups or at least their starting 22. There is probably a position or two that they are thinking about. In the All Black squad I think only Umaga, Carter, Jack and McCaw are sure of their places. The rest are all up for grabs with lots of talent around to fill the gaps. Wanna win the Trinations? The Springboks and Wallabies are going to find it very, very tough.

Other Rugby
Apart from Theunie Lategan, the whole SA rugby board has kissed and made up. Theunie decided to break all ties with rugby. Some of the older readers may remember his father. He was a very good centre named Tjol, who used to partner Ryk van Schoor in midfield, to form one of the best centre combinations the world has ever seen.

Brent Russell ended up as star as he played in the Barbarian team that whipped the England second stringers by 52-39. Russell had the Twickenham crowd on their feet with devastating footwork and breaks to run in two tries and have a hand in a couple of other. Baabaa rugby suits him very well. The other star was the man of the match, Wendell Sailor. The big Wendell, who had a bit of a disastrous Super 12, played a Lomu-type game by breaking tackles with pure power to also score two tries. For England, their winger Paul Sackey looked like a good prospect for the future.

The Final Word
In 1987 the All Blacks of David Kirk were crowned as the first Rugby World cup champions. In 1991 they failed to reach the final when Australia's captain, Nick Farr Jones lifted the trophy. In 1995 South Africa tasted the glory when Francois Pienaar lifted the trophy and Australia had a miserable tournament.

1999 it was turn of John Eales to lift the trophy as South Africa reaches the semi finals only through an amazing five drop-goals from Jannie de Beer. When the 2003 tournament was played, it was the first time that a team, Australia, reached two finals in a row, but they could not make it two titles in a row. England had the opportunity to do the honors.

With the exception of Australia, there is a very common thread through the history of the prestige rugby tournament. You come off one title to be very lucky to make the semi finals in the next. That is something I call the English bubble – only because England is the latest victim.

All rugby teams have this idea that they should build a team for the World Cup. That has often lead to excellent players who unceremoniously get dumped in favour of youth so that the building process can take shape. The selectors and coach will therefore have a team that has some old warlords with about half that only have a handful or so tests behind their names. This has proven to be the success story to winning the cup - Trying share the intelligence and experience of the older hands with the exciting ability of the young generation. It is truly the exception when a Jonah Lomu, Johnny Wilkinson, David Campese, Joost vd Westhuizen, etc make an impact when they are still very young.

So what we have is a team with have experience and let's call the other half raw talent. After the world cup, the first thing that happens is that the experienced players start retiring. That takes a bout a year or two, so after a year or two, the team that had a great combination, is now cut down to size by all the other teams who are now starting to form an experienced core with young raw talent around them.

That is what I call the bubble or in the latest case, the English bubble. You built up to a certain point in time and then you burst and lose all that have kept you together and made you a world champion side. Just like a bubble!

That is my opinion, what is yours?

Futures topics:

• The best player in the world

• The man of the match award

• If you want a short-term job, become a coach in SA!

• Referees and their impact on matches

• The allocation of the new Super 14 franchise in South Africa

• Ex rugby players who play analysts

• International tours

• Bonus points in competitions

• Yellow and red cards in rugby

• The English bubble

• The format of the Rugby World Cup and spreading of the game

• Some of my favourite players through the years

There are many more, but if there is something you would like me to add to the list, please feel free to let me know!

Tips and Predictions for the final

This is now really it! We have reached that final stage in the 2005 Super 12. In fact, we reached the final match in the Super 12. Next year it will be the Super 14 with the inclusion of the Perth Western Force and who know what team from South Africa. With the current turmoil in the South African Rugby Union anything can be expected!

If you said at the beginning of the Super 12 that we would be seeing a final between the Crusaders and the Waratahs, I would have probably called you a liar. I don’t think there is any problem with the Crusaders as they are undoubtedly the best team we have ever seen in the Super 12. but the Waratahs in the final? I did not think it was possible for the Tahs to get this far.

The Crusaders are an exceptional team. I have said it before and need to say it again, I have so much respect for this team. They are so well balanced between back and front. In a number of matches this year, they seemed to play at half pace, just to accelerate when they need to score and then win comfortably. Their tight five has the big Chris Jack leading them to the fight and do not throw the very mobile Gregg Sommerville away. They also have a very well balanced loose trio with the ball-poacher-per-excellance Richie McCaw leading the team. He is supported very well by the ex-captain, Reubens Thorne and Moses Tuiali’I at number 8.

Behind the pack is a very sly Justin Marshall with Dan Carter at number 10. They form the decision making brain of the team and with the vast experience of Justin to help the young star, they are a formidable team. In centre field Aaron Mauger is a little vulnerable on defense, but with his attacking and decision making ability he more than makes up for the little glitches on defense. On the outside is the very experienced Caleb Ralph and Rico Gear with Leon McDonald is covering the back.

The Waratahs do not have the strongest front row, but there is nothing wrong with the two locks, Harrison and Vickerman. I am sure that Harrison will see that the Waratahs get enough ball and will also ensure that there is some fireworks! Phil Waugh will be taking on McCaw in the loose as he is just as good at stealing ball and at the back is the massive nr 8, David Lyons. His driving will have to be closely monitored by the Crusarers.

Chris Whitaker controls the backline from the base and the experienced Nathan Grey is in midfield. On the outside is the talented Peter Hewat who would definitely want to end off his excellent season with a win. Matt Rogers is covering at the back and will be hoping for a better effort than his previous outing. Loti Tiquiri covers the other touchline. I don’t think I have to elaborate.

Where should they play? I think the Crusaders will take the Waratahs on up front and break them down slowly. Carter will chase Rogers all over the park
And it will be important that Hewat and Tiquiri give him some real assistance. Rico Gear and Caleb Ralph is going to chase everything hard and these guys will have to be at their best. The Crusaders should have more possession in the match and that will give them a chance to kick and case a lot. I do not see them going “hand-to-hand” with Nathan Grey and Morgan Turinui.

The Waratahs are going to live off scraps and they will run it up in the backline with either Grey – straight at Mauger – or Lyons to set up the second phase. On number 10 they have Laughlin MacCay and I do not think that he is going to control the match as much as Carter. He is not going to get enough ball and neither is he quite as talented as Carter. This really looks like their weak spot and the Tahs management team will do will to come up with a strategy to plug this possible proverbial hole. If they can get the ball out wide we know what to expect.

Taking all into consideration, I think that it should be a very nice match to watch and the winning team will win by 18 points. The winner, the Crusaders of course!

Semi Final Super 12 2005 Wrap

Crusaders 47 Hurricanes 7
This match was always going to be a mismatch. It would have been a miracle if the Hurricanes won this one. In the final round they played and the Crusaders easily outclassed the Hurricanes, even though the Crusaders rested a number of key players. When players like Dan Carter returned, you knew the Canes were in for a hiding.

In the packs the fight was closer that expected with the Hurricanes’ Jerry Collins showing that he is a handful around the fringes. He was bound to take the Canes over the advantage line on a number of occasions, but the support was not always there to make something from it. Rodney So’oalo played his heart out, but as the game progressed he was forced more and more into the defense. For the Canterbury men, they worked under a blanket and one knew that the power and experience from Chris Jack, Ritchie McCaw, and Reubens Thorn would ultimately take its toll on the Canes pack.

The Crusaders’ backline was awesome. Justin Marshall may have is faults, but he is a true general behind the pack and always seems to make the right decisions. We saw him with his sniping breaks when available and he also strong enough to take the pressure on himself and stand up against the opposition pack when bad ball is delivered. The talent then just increases when the ball goes to the great Dan Carter. This youngster is a true general on flyhalf and can really run, kick and defend and he does every one of those functions excellently. It is around these two where the success of the Crusaders lies and if you cannot cut them down or put them under constant pressure, you will be in trouble. The talent does not stop there as the next player in line is a very under estimated Aaron Mauger. He is one of the more intelligent inside centres in the world and can easily do duty on flyhalf if required. That helps to alleviate the pressure from Dan Carter, as Carter knows Mauger is there to make the right decision. Any one playing outside these three will look good. I also take my hat off to Scott Hamilton. He has been a bit of a “super sub” for the Crusaders. He struggles to make the starting line-up, yet when he gets the chance he always have a storming match, like he did in the semi final to score three tries.

The Hurricanes had a problem at the back as the miss of Conrad Smith had a dramatic impact on the organization of the backline. I did not expect injury to have such a big impact, but they seemed to be directionless when the ball hit the backline. Even Tana Umaga was outclassed by Mauger. That poses the question – that I have heard asked before – who is actually giving the direction in the Hurricanes backline? Umaga or Smith? I do think the young Jimmy Goperth found the last two weekends tough as he once again showed some poor decision making by kicking the ball often down the throat of Leon MacDonald. Something you do not do!

The one Hurricane players who stood out head and shoulders above his other backline players, is the powerful Ma’a Nonu. Nonu will definitely add the headache the All Black selectors will have with another strong performance. Nonu has grown up as a player as looked good – even in an outclassed backline. Something an excellent player like Umaga could not manage.

The final result, a very expected 47-7 win to the Crusaders and like I said from about the second round I the Super 12 – if you want to win the trophy this year, you will first have to beat the Crusaders.

Waratahs 23 Bulls 13
All the South Africans held thumbs for the Bulls when they ran onto the field in Aussie Stadium. For 30 minutes the Bulls controlled the match and the try scored by Johan Roets when he charged a kick from Matt Rogers down, showed the pressure the Bulls exerted on the Tahs. At that stage Matt Rogers was having a nightmare and the Bulls pack threatened to take the Tahs pack out of the competition.

Then suddenly a too familiar thing happened. Something I have written about the last couple of weeks. The Bulls seemed to stop playing. They did it in the last number of outings in SA and I have warned that this was going to bite them. Unfortunately they carried on playing like that and it has now cost them the ultimate prize – a place in the final.

The try by Morgan Turinui was a joke at this level of rugby. He kicked the ball after fielding it covering for Rogers on fullback, the ball bounced between three Bulls players, every Bulls player stood and watched as Turinui fielded the ball from the bounce to run in a 40 meter untouched try. This is primary school stuff! Bryan Habana also had a bit of a nightmare when he beat the defense with his pace, just to knock the ball on trying to pick it up when it bounced away from him. That showed that he may be a very talented player and a try-scoring machine, but he has yet a lot to learn.

At half time, the score was 16-13 to the Waratahs and it was still anyone’s game.

In the second half, we once again saw a very soft try when Nathan Grey bumped off Etienne Botha in the simplest of fashions to crash over for a try off first phase possession. That summed up the performance of the Bulls midfield, which showed a lot of lack in creativity and leaked a bit on defense.
The Bulls pack did what was expected, but it was David Lyons of the Waratahs who deserves the praises. He played outstandingly and was a huge thorn in the flesh of the Bulls. I don’t think there is any doubt who will be the Wallaby number 8! Lyons played his best game of the season.

The Waratahs had Nathan Grey to stabilize the midfield and a sly Chris Whitaker on scrumhalf, but they also have their problems in midfield with Lachlan MacKay not taking command of the match on flyhalf. This may just be their Achilles heal against the Crusaders as you cannot win if your flyhalf gets dominated and outplayed by the opposition flyhalf. Peter Hewat contributed his usual handful of points.

In the final analysis, the Waratahs turned a slender three points lead when they turned at 16 - 13 half time to a convincing 23 – 13 win at full time. They will, however, have to shift up more than a gear to beat the Crusaders in the final.

General Super 12 comments
We have finally reached the final. The Super 12 is an amazing tournament and it has some spectacular rugby in it. It is always sad when these final stages are reached and you realize that although this is the final cherry after a long build-up. This is the time when you start feeling sad for some teams who totally under performed – like the Stormers and happy fro those who totally over performed to taste the top end of the ladder – like the Hurricanes. The final will be a tough affair, regardless of who plays and the winning of the Super 12 can probably beat most test teams if given a chance.

Other Rugby
Nothing to do with rugby, but Arsenal won the FA cup by winning the penalty shoot-out against Manchester United. That after United dominated most of the match and Arsenal was hanging on for at least 90 of the 120 minutes (full plus extra time) played. That is what is so different between rugby and soccer. No rugby team can dominate a match for so long and still lose it!

The Final Word
One of the things that have been introduced into rugby is the concept of yellow and red cards. It is a concept that has been used by soccer for many years, but rugby took a long time before they latched onto the idea.

I don’t, per se, have any problem with the concept that a player is punished for 10 minutes in the cooler when receiving a yellow and off the field when red, but do have some serious concerns regarding the impact the card has on the match and also on the safety of the players. I question the real benefit given two a side when their opposition lose a player for 10 minutes and in the worst case scenarios I have even seen matches have uncontested scrums because one side had a player sin binned or sent off. You tell me the advantage you have when your pack dominates the tight phases only to be “penalized” because your opposition front row was sent off. What is the justice in that outcome? Is the idea to punish a team and not really favour the other?

Looking at how the rules have changed to protect players, I cannot believe that we can sit in a situation where injuries are more likely due to a player sent off, without all the medical experts complaining about it.

Taking all of the above into consideration, I propose the following for yellow and red cards.

1. A yellow card is carried over in a season and after a second yellow to a player an automatic one match suspension is carried for that player
2. When a yellow card is given to a player a match, the player is not sent off, but the team loses two of their substitutes off the bench. Two players who must be nominated there and then by the coach and the two players are not allowed to be a player in the front row. A team’s substitutes will therefore be trimmed down from 7 to 5.
3. A red card carries and immediate two-match suspension and a second red card in a season to a four-match suspension, etc.
4. When a team picks up a red card in a match, that player is immediately substituted and the team also loses four of the remaining six payers left on the bench. The same rule as to yellow cards apply and the players must be nominated and removed immediately and they are not allowed to be a front row player.

The idea of this concept is to ensure that there are always 15 players on the field to prevent serious injury from occurring to any player, but also ensure that the transgressing team is punished for the ill discipline.

That is my opinion, what is yours?

Futures topics:

• The best player in the world

• The man of the match award

• If you want a short-term job, become a coach in SA!

• Referees and their impact on matches

• The allocation of the new Super 14 franchise in South Africa

• Ex rugby players who play analysts

• International tours

• Bonus points in competitions

• Yellow and red cards in rugby

• The format of the Rugby World Cup and spreading of the game

• Some of my favourite players through the years

• The English bubble

There are many more, but if there is something you would like me to add to the list, please feel free to let me know!

Round 12 Super 12 2005 Wrap

Crusaders 40 Hurricanes 20 (My tip = Crusaders by 10)
The Crusaders were always going to win this match and they did what was required. They rested a number of their key players and played the dress rehearsal to the semi final that will take place on the same field. The Hurricanes were never really in the match and the Crusaders seemed to have control for most of the match. The red and black pack took the Canes on and ensured a good steady stream of possession for Andrew Mehrtens, playing for the rested Carter. Mehrtens dictated with his educated boot and he outclassed the young Jimmy Gopperth.

They are to me still the team to beat if you want to win this year’s Super 12. They are the most consistent side and have won and played in more final than any other team and their class is just obvious. Baring a miracle, I think they can make a place for the last Super 12 trophy.

Waratahs 25 Blues 20 (My tip = Waratahs by 15)
Peter Hewat was once again the star of the Waratahs, but they had to dig deep to beat the Blues. They had to score four tries to ensure their place on the top of the log, but unfortunately they could not manage four tries and end up in second place. The Blues had to win to have any possible chance to reach the semi finals, but even though they tried hard, the Tahs were too good. Peter Hewat once again came in with a superb performance and the old veteran Nathan Grey scored a beauty to win the match.

Their second place will give them a home semi final against the Bulls.

Chiefs 31 Highlanders 8 (My tip = Highlanders by 5)
I have said for a while that I reckon the Highlanders are the most over estimated team in the Super 12 and that they do not belong in the top of the log. They proved me 100% correct by crashing out against the “bad” Chiefs. The Chiefs left their best match for last and looking at their performance against the Highlanders, they looked like a side that should be in the semi final. Unfortunately it must also be seen in the light that the Highlanders were absolutely hopeless. They would have even lost against the Reds if they played against them (I am sure the admin would like that comment!). Fortunately for the Highlanders David Hill was off target, otherwise this score could have been a lot worse. Annesi and Sivivatu were once again the destroyers for the Chiefs.

Reds 21 Brumbies 38 (My tip = Brumbies by 8)
The Reds definitely left their best performance for last and they were superb in the first half. While Flatley and Latham watched their team mates from the stands, they would have been happy when the Reds lead by 21-19 half time. Well deserved, if I should say so myself. Then it all went wrong. The Brumbies started showing their class and Gitaeu started cutting up the Reds in center field. That is when it all went wrong for the Reds and the Brumbies scored another 19 unanswered points in the second half. I know there was a big fuss about the Brumbies also making the semi final if the Bulls loose by about 100 million, but it was never a realistic chance. Both teams will be happy to go and start preparing for the next competition.

Bulls 75 Stormers 14 (My tip = Stormers by 3)
If there was ever an unexpected result, it was this one. It was always going to be a 50/50 match with one side just tipping the other one. What a contrast! The Bulls pack was just awesome and they destroyed the Stormers pack. It must also be noted that Stormers just continued on their pathetic form the whole tournament. The Stormers had about three chances to score in the first half and at this level you need to take the chances. They did not and found themselves trailing 30-7 at halftime instead of being less that 10 behind. The pressure from the Bulls pack was just too much and the Stormers crumbled in the second half. With all the possession the Bulls back flourished and Morne Steyn had another great day at flyhalf, scoring no less than 35 points.

The Bulls will take a lot of confidence from this match as not only was it the first time they ever beat the Stormers, but they slaughtered them. The Bulls will now be traveling to Sydney to take on the Waratahs for a place in the final. They will have to make a u-turn in their overseas performances to do so.

Cats 20 Sharks 20 (My tip = a draw!)
Well, what will I say? I called this draw 100%! It was the fight for the wooden spoon and the Sharks managed to ward off a big challenge by the Cats to lose this match, by managing to pull a draw out of it and retaining their position to be officially the worse side in this year’s Super 12. They only had one win and that was against the Brumbies – the start of the Brumbies’ demise. There is not much to say about the match as the handling and defense was as bad as we saw it all season this far, but it was at least entertaining. These teams need some serious improvement if they ever want to be any competition in the Super 14.

General Super 12 comments
We have now reached the final play-offs on the way to the finals. The Crusaders will take on the Hurricanes from Wellington in Christchurch and the Waratahs will play host in Sydney to the Bulls from Pretoria. One thing which is again certain, is that we will once again have a New Zeeland team in the final.

Other Rugby
The SA selectors have announced their provisional squad and have a number of SA supporters hot under the collar. There is a question mark here and there, but overall it was basically expected. I will reserve my comments until the squad has been trimmed down to the actual Bok squad and not a training squad.

The Final Word
Something that always raises a question is the allocation of bonus points in rugby tournaments. We currently see the impact of it where the Bulls have ended up higher than the Hurricanes on the log, although they have won one less match this year. They do, however, got right up there due to bonus points. In the current scoring method, you get four points for a win, one point if you score four tries or more and one point if you lose with less than seven.

In a tournament where you have eleven or twelve rounds, there is definite merit in the bonus point system. I personally think that they should actually even increase the stakes by awarding six tries with another bonus point and eight with one more. One for three or more drop goals and one for a 100% goal kicking record – for three or more kicks!

The problem starts coming in when you only have a couple of rounds, like in the six nations. In a tournament where there are not so many rounds, the weather can be a very big leveling factor. We have seen cases where excellent teams can totally dominate a match, but due to some cyclone hitting the field, it is just impossible to get a high score. How does that compare with a team who has a fairly mediocre performance, but due to the ounce of a ball on a hard sunny day, they score four tries and win!

In the six Nations a couple of years ago I had a look at allocating bonus points. The amazing thing was that England, who was without any doubt the strongest team in the tournament, only got one bonus point after losing a close match against – I think it was Scotland - in a dreadfully wet and muddy match. Where is the fairness in the bonus point structure now if the team who obviously dominated all play only played in bad weather and would not have earned a single point in the whole tournament?

On the point of points allocation, the worst there is must be the tournaments where the winning team get four for a win and the loosing team one for the loss! Just give me one good reason why any loosing side who can whipped by 100 points gets a points for taking the field? That is like paying appearance money for someone whom you know will get whipped before the match is started.

In summary, I am all for the allocation of bonus points but you must be careful how and in which tournaments you allocate them.

That is my opinion, what is yours?

Futures topics:

• The best player in the world

• The man of the match award

• If you want a short-term job, become a coach in SA!

• Referees and their impact on matches

• The allocation of the new Super 14 franchise in South Africa

• Ex rugby players who play analysts

• International tours

• Bonus points in competitions

• The English bubble

• Yellow and red cards in rugby

• The format of the Rugby World Cup and spreading of the game

• Some of my favourite players through the years

There are many more, but if there is something you would like me to add to the list, please feel free to let me know!

Tips and Predictions for round 12 Super 12 2005

This is it! We have now reached the final round for the 2005 Super 12 and there are three certainties and three other teams that will fight it out for the last spot in the semi finals. The Waratahs, Crusaders and Hurricanes have certain places in the semi finals and the Bulls, Highlanders and Blues will be fighting for the other place.

The Crusaders and Waratahs will also both like to win well to ry and ensure that they will host the final – if they both win their semi finals.

The Bulls only need a win and they have the luxury of watching the Highlanders and Blues complete their matches before they play. They may even – you never know – not even have to win their last match against the Stormers.

Crusaders v Hurricanes
The Crusaders would love to win this one and pick up a full compliment of five points to try and end on top of the log, but they are used to this position and are the most consistent team every year. They basically always end up in the top two positions in the Super 12 and knows exactly what they want to do.

The Canes would love to win and also pick up a full compliment, as they are only five behind the Crusaders and could cause some interesting calculations if they actually managed to do it.

Even though the onslaught from the Hurricanes will be ferocious, I don’t think they are quite in the class of the Crusaders and bar anything that the red and blacks don’t hold back, the Crusaders should run in comfortable winners with at least 10 points.

Waratahs v Blues
This will be a very difficult match for both these teams as the Waratahs would want to win to ensure that they stay on top of the log and the Blues need a win to have the slightest chance n the tournament. The Blues are also the first of the tree final contenders to play and they will thus be the first to know if they are in with a slim chance. The Tahs have been so good this year, I cannot really see the Blues win this match, but Tahs dare not underestimate the Blues. The tries that are scored by Rocokoco and Howlett will always be remembered and if they get enough ball, all hell can break loose. I do, however, not think that the Waratahs have come thi far for nothing and they should have more than enough ammunition in their arsenal to beat the Blues by 15.

Chiefs v Highlanders
If the Highlanders want to have a little hope to stay in the competition, they must win against the Chiefs and win well. They have the potential to do so and although the Chiefs are playing at home, I expect the Highlanders to do what their supporters are all hoping for and win. The Chiefs just do not have enough to beat the Highlanders, but stranger things have happened. I think the Highlanders will win this one by 5.

Reds v Brumbies
The Reds and the Brumbies will be going through the motions to complete this match. The Reds are one of the bottom-loggers and the Brumbies are the walking wounded. They had a dismal season and would definitely like to end it in style by beating the hopeless Reds in the last match. They should have too much flair for the Reds and should take this one by 8.

Bulls v Stormers
This is the match that is going to determine the fourth place in the semi final. The Bulls are currently hanging in there and if the Blues and the Highlanders both loose, they are safe. If any one of the two teams win, the Bulls need a victory against the Stormers. This is where the catch is. On the general performance this year, the Bulls must be the favourites to win, but we all know what the Stormers are capable of. They are not historically the best SA franchise in the Super 12 for nothing and they have an extremely talented backline. One that has not been firing on all their cylinders, but talented never the less.

The Bulls have the big pack that can destroy teams in the lineouts and scrums and that should be where they are going to target the Stormers – their suspect pack.

The last bit of history is one that was changed by a number of other teams this year and that is that the Bulls have yet to beat the Stormers in the Super 12. This is going to be a very hard contest, but my feeling is that the Bulls are not going to win this match and go down by 3 against the Stormers. All is not lost for the Bulls though and if the Highlanders slip, the Bulls are home and dry in the semi final.

Cats v Sharks
Playing at Ellispark is not unknown for the Sharks, but ask many teams, it is hell. It is one of the most beautiful stadiums in the world with a near perfect climate for rugby and a spectacular surface. The problem is that it is also 7500 ft above sea level and that tend to rip at your lungs when you play on that historic field.

These are some of the problems that the Sharks will face when the take on the Cats to determine who will end at the bottom of the log! This can be a very good match to watch, but I do not expect a big crowd because the match is of no importance. I think that we will end up in tie – a nice result for the final Super 12 log match!

Round 11 Super 12 2005 Wrap

Blues 10 Hurricanes 22 (My tip = Blues by 5)
The Hurricanes did what I never expected them to and that is to beat the Blues in their backyard. They managed to pull this cat out of the bag to ensure that they reach the semi finals. The Blues, on the other hand, will kick their own backsides that they did not win this match. They had numerous chances to score, but messed it up every time. The Hurricanes did what they wanted to do and their backline showed how dangerous they could be. Tana Umaga and Conrad Smith is a very good combination in the midfield and although we all sing the praises of the All Black captain; his centre partner is a very underestimated player. Ma’a Nonu is another devastating force that constantly tests the defense.

The Blues slipped in the wrong matches this year and that has lead to them sitting in a tight spot as they played most of the Super 12 far below their means.

The Hurricanes are already ensured of a place in the semi final and the Blues are still in with a chance if they win their last round.

Waratahs 27 Reds 8 (My tip = Waratahs by 10)
As expected the Waratahs were far too strong for the Reds. The Reds tried very hard, but the magical season of Peter Hewat just never seem to stop! He again walked away with more than a handful of points and is really starting to become an embarrassing problem for the Wallaby selectors. He will be a big discussion point when the tri Nation squad is selected.

The local derby was exactly as expected. The Reds played one of their better matches of the season, but it was never going to be good enough to stop the Waratahs from getting their first win against the Reds in Brisbane.

The Waratahs are secure on top of the log and will play a home semi final and the Reds is just hoping the season will end.

Highlanders 13 Crusaders 27 (My tip = Crusaders by 20)
The Crusaders are a class side and it showed against the Highlanders. They went to Dunedin and did exactly what was asked from them. They swallowed the Highlanders, chewed them and spat them out. They scored when required.

The Highlanders are starting to find the going tough now towards the end of the Super 12 and are hanging on. They are still in with a strong chance to make the semi finals if they can beat Chiefs in Hamilton and some other matches end their desired way.

At half time in this match the Highlanders were still in with a serious chance when they lead by 7 – 6. The second half the Crusaders came out with a bang and Aaron Mauger crossed twice and the Crusaders just went into a different gear to clinch this important match.

Brumbies 28 Chiefs 28 (My tip = Brumbies by 10)
The Brumbies played at home and never could have expected the onslaught from the Chiefs. I never expected a draw from this match, but I must also say that the Brumbies threw more chances away in this match than they have done for the whole season thus far. The frustration was clearly visible on the face of the old veteran Owen Finegan. They tried and tried, but things never seemed to work out. Stirling Mortlock showed that he is once again ready for the big time and scored an impressive two tries. A little light in the dismal match.

The Chiefs also had their chances and ironically they could have won if the reliable boot of David Hill.

This was the last time Owen Finegan played in Canberra before he leaves for Newcastle at the end of the Super 12. This will be a disappointing close for him on his home ground.

Sharks 17 Bulls 23 (My tip = Bulls by 7)
The Sharks came out firing and really shocked the Bulls by throwing the ball around and hitting out wide. The Bulls also had their hands full with Brent Russell who managed to let them grab in the air every time he came into the line. Things also started going wrong for the Sharks when he was forced to leave the field due to injury.

The Bulls managed to pull this one out of the fire and again showed that they can win some of their disappointing matches as well. The problem they have is that they again showed that they struggle to play away from home.

The Bulls are in the best position of all the contenders for the fourth semi final spot and have to beat the Stormers in their last round to secure their place. Theoretically it should be the easiest of the lot as the Stormers are fourth from the bottom on the log. To accomplish it, may be a different story, as they have never beaten the Stormers in the Super 12!

In a final word on this match, I have to make a special mention of the referee Shaun Veldsman. I am going to restrain myself by not giving any examples of his decisions, but will just like to add that I think it is a disgrace that he is allowed to be a referee in the Super 12.

Stormers 25 Cats 20 (My tip = Stormers by 3)
The Stormers and the Cats played for some personal glory and some players for positions in the Springbok team. It was one of the better matches t6o watch and like I said last week, I expected the Stormers to complete their 80 minutes on the field this past weekend. Can you remember? They played the first 20 against the Blues, the middle 40 against the Chiefs and now the last 20 against the Cats! A perfect 80 minutes! The only one we are waiting for now is that they play the full 80 minutes in one match and I am afraid there is only one more left for them – not something the Bulls would be looking forward too!

Jean de Villiers again showed his class in the midfield and it is still one of the great mysteries why Gert Smal would not play him there all tournament while Marius Joubert had a dreadful season this far. The Stormers faithful also said goodbye to one of the most exiting players they have seen in the Cape. Breyton Paulse will be leaving for France at the end of the Super 12.

General Super 12 comments
There is only one round left in the Super 12. Three teams, The Waratahs, Crusaders and Hurricanes have secured their places in the semi finals. The fourth place is open for any one of the following teams if they win. I give them in the order they will finish if they all win: Bulls, Highlanders and Blues. The Bulls take on the Stormers at Loftus, the Highlanders the Chiefs in Hamilton and the Blues the Waratahs in Sydney. Realistically I think the Bulls and the Highlanders have the only chances to win this weekend, with the Highlanders maybe just a whisker ahead to beat the Chiefs than the Bulls beating the Stormers.

Other Rugby
Nothing to report.

The Final Word
One of the most tragic things that ever happened to rugby is when overseas tours ceased to exist. I remember when I was a little boy in 1970 (All Blacks), 1974 (Lions), 1975 (France), 1976 (All Blacks), 1980 (Lions) and 1986 (Rebel Cavaliers from NZ) toured SA. Yes, there were cameo appearances by France, Argentina, the English and the Jaguars as well, but these are the specific ones I remember.

In 1970 I was in bed – with a burst appendix! - listening on the radio how Fergie McCormack removed Syd Nomiss’ front teeth in a test match. As a little boy I remembered when Pine-tree Colin Meads looked at amazement when Johan de Bruyn put his glass eye back with the grass sticking out around the edges.

In 1974 I watched with amazement on the small rugby field in East London when local hero, the winger Allan Stephenson, bumped off the international star JJ Williams in an amazing run against the Lions. Border put up one hell of a match that day while being destroyed by the Lions. I cannot member the score, but I will always remember the performance of our local hero.

In 1976 I can remember Western Province beating the All Blacks in the last minutes when Chris Pope scored. The country exploded with hope when the unbeaten All Blacks were beaten by one of the local sides.

In 1980 we all loved the boot of Clive Woodward when he joined the Lions tour as a replacement. Andy Irvine joined the tour late and the then veteran Scotsman was included in the match against Tranvaal just as he arrived. I remember how he seemed to manage to hit the uprights every time he kicked at goal. One of the most times I have ever seen it happen.

In 1986 the Northern Transvaal flanker, Burger Geldenhuys floored the rebel captain, Andy Dalton, with a sucker punch from behind and with that also ending Dalton’s tour. Something that went down with a sour taste in the mouth for both the rebel tour supporters and the SA public as the rebel players really gave up a lot to come to the then isolated South Africa. I was also at Ellis Park when the Louis Luyt fifteen (sorry Transvaal) beat the Cavaliers.

There are many more examples I can give you, but what I am trying to tell you is that I experienced something over my lifetime which the youth of today have never seen and will more than likely never see either. Those were the days when there were international tours and the international side traveled to the outskirts of the country to play against the local talent. They played in small towns and the people flocked from all over to actually see these international stars. You must remember that most of the people have never even seen or heard of a television set and if you were lucky, you saw a picture of the international player in a team photo in the local paper where his head was the size of a pin! After the match they would all flock down to the local country club or pub and have a chat over a couple of – very often a couple too many – beers. All in a good spirit and rugby triumphed at the end of the day.

These tours were killed when the game turned professional.

The days of international tours were the last days when rugby still belonged to the people. I know there are many people who still want to convince you today that the game belongs to the people, but they are wrong. It is no different to watching a rugby match than to watch a professional production on a stage or even to watch a movie. The experts, commentators and analysts are no different to any movie or theatre critic. They are paid officials to bring a view on a professional game. A game that is no longer controlled by passion or love, but by money, money, money, money and more money.

The sponsors now control what happens and if there is any chance they will not make a huge profit at the gates, they do not want to sponsor the match anymore. The fact that there are little boys, like I was, who dream of only having that chance to see or touch your international or local hero, does not mean one single damn thing to man with the cheque book. He is only interested in his money!

I can sometimes only sit back and dream of the days when rugby belonged to the people and I have these beautiful, very personal memories with my interactions with the game through the years.

That is something, which is gone forever. Just like international tours……… Oh, how I wish I can turn back the clock…….

That is my opinion, what is yours?

Future topics:

• The best player in the world

• The man of the match award

• If you want a short-term job, become a coach in SA!

• Referees and their impact on matches

• The allocation of the new Super 14 franchise in South Africa

• Ex rugby players who play analysts

• International tours

• The English bubble

• Bonus points in competitions

• Yellow and red cards in rugby

• The format of the Rugby World Cup and spreading of the game

• Some of my favourite players through the years

There are many more, but if there is something you would like me to add to the list, please feel free to let me know!

Tips and Predictions for round 11 Super 12 2005

After 10 round of the 2005 Super 12 we once again reach a stage where the last two rounds will be very decisive to determine the final four. Two teams have already secured places in the semi final and they will more than likely get one or two points to secure home semi finals. These teams are the Waratahs and the Crusaders. The Tahs have the “easy” match against the Reds and the Crusaders take on the Highlanders in Dunedin. They need one win out of the last two rounds to ensure a home semi final and I think they will not need more than round 11. The last two places is very open and any one of the following: Hurricanes, Highlanders, Blues and Bulls are still in with a chance. The Hurricanes have the Blues and the Crusaders left and may just find it tough to get points. The Highlanders will play the Crusaders and then the Chiefs at Hamilton. The Hamilton match will be the one they target to get five points, but they will more than likely share the points tally with the Blues. The Blues have the Hurricanes in Auckland and the Waratahs in Sydney and I do favour them to win the first, but the latter is going to be difficult. The Bulls have the easiest of the matches against the bottom of the log Sharks and Stormers and should pick up 10 points to get them through. It is however more difficult than it looks on paper as they have traditionally struggled against the Sharks and never beaten the Stormers in the Super 12.
If the Bulls get through with a full 10, I recon they will join the Blues as the other two semi finalists. If they fails, the Blues and the and the Highlanders will make up the last two.

Blues v Hurricanes
The first match is going to be a cracker and the Blues are back at home after their tour in SA. They will love the opportunity to play in front of their home crowd again and I think they are going to be too strong for the Hurricanes.

The Canes will be playing for a spot in the semi final and if they win this one they will be home and dry. I just cannot see them doing it as the Blues are currently on fire.

I give this one to the Blues by 5.

Waratahs v Reds
The Waratahs will be much too strong for the Reds, but we all know that these local derbies can bite you. In Australia, like South Africa, they do have the tendency to be just that little more intense than in NZ. I just cannot see this one going wrong for the Tahs and they should win this by 10.

Highlanders v Crusaders
Dunedin is the secret weapon of the Highlanders, but last week they found out that you have to work for a win. Top teams can handle the pressure and climate and beat the Highlanders in their backyard. The Crusaders is such a class team and the way they have been playing they should be to strong and take this match by 20.

Brumbies v Chiefs
The Brumbies are still in with a very academical chance and must not be totally written off. If they can get five pints against the Chiefs and then five against the Reds, they can sneak into the semi final if the permutations go their way. I unfortunately cannot see them picking up the full 10 in the last two matches as their flair is currently gone and they remind me of a boxer who is holding on not to be knocked out. Although they should win both the last matches, I shall not be surprised if they loose one of them.

The Chiefs have completed their party and have no more chance in the tournament. I expect them to go down by about 10 to the Brumbies.

Sharks v Bulls
The Bulls will go to the shark tank very motivated. It is, however, not the first time that they are in a position where they have to win the local derbies to get a spot in the semi final. All the SA sides have been there and their – much weaker on the log – opponents seem to get some special energy in these matches. The Bulls pack should dominate the Sharks and that will built the foundation to win the match.

The Sharks are in such a bad state that Dick Muir – coach – stated after the 77 – 34 loss that his team did not look too bad. Dropping 77 points is most definitely not good!

The Bulls should have too much for the Sharks and if they spread the ball, they should run in comfortable winners. I do, however expect them to play their normal crash rugby and will then only win this match by about 7.

Stormers v Cats
This match has only pride at stake and could be one of the better matches to watch this weekend. These teams have nothing to lose and if the weather holds in Cape Town, we may just see very expansive rugby. I expect the Stormers to hold out the Cats in a very attractive match and win by 3.